02BC008 · ON · Drainage area 4,243 km² (HYDAT)
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| Stage | Years | KGE |
|---|---|---|
| Calibration | – | – |
| Validation | – | 0.936 |
Short record: no separate test year.
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The forecast level is the forecast flow converted to water level with a stage-discharge rating curve that FlowAi fits to this station's own record of daily levels and flows (Water Survey of Canada approved and provisional data, last 10 years, recent years weighted more, refitted monthly; current to 2026-09-18). Days with ice, estimated values or failed quality checks are left out of the fit.
Accuracy. The curve reproduces observed daily-mean level to within 2.6 cm (root-mean-square; 2.1 cm on the most recent year held out, 3.5 cm on the highest 10% of flows). It was fitted on levels from 27.22 to 31.57 m (flows 8.3 to 283.0 m3/s). Above that range the curve is extended and the forecast is marked "beyond observed range": error grows quickly and the level is more likely too low than too high.
Datum. Levels are metres above the gauge datum.
Daily mean. The daily forecast is a daily-mean level. The highest level reached during the day can be higher, often by about 10 cm and by 25 cm or more on small, fast rivers. The 6-hourly forecast carries each 6-hour mean flow through the same curve (it matches 5-minute readings within about 2 cm), so its peak is closer to the highest level of the day.
Ice. Winter ice changes the level-flow relationship. No level forecast is shown while the latest three days carry an ice flag or a level with no flow, and a level forecast is withdrawn if the rating stops passing FlowAi's accuracy checks, which are rechecked monthly. The gauge then shows flow only.
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The flow record has 6.0 years of clean daily observations, too few to also hold out validation years. The existing development promotion gate still applies. This forecast's correction reads yesterday's observed flow. On a day it has not arrived by the forecast run, the forecast is corrected instead by this gauge's previous corrector, which reads the flow observed two days before and must pass the same daily gate; such a forecast is flagged.
Skill may drop in extreme events outside the calibration range.
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Data sources: Water Survey of Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada. View attribution details